Robert Greenstein addresses Chicago Harris presidency forum
Robert Greenstein—founder and president of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities—told an audience of students, faculty, and staff at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy that regardless of who wins the upcoming presidential election the country will face a budget showdown that will have significant implications for poverty, inequality and the presidency.
An expert on the federal budget and a 1996 MacArthur Fellowship winner, Greenstein said that the United States is accelerating towards a “fiscal cliff” as the Bush tax cuts prepare to expire and the deadline to raise the debt limit once again approaches. The showdown, he said, is the outgrowth of, and will be exacerbated by, the stark ideological differences over how budget deficits ought to be addressed.
“Looming underneath the fiscal cliff are deep disagreements,” said Mr. Greenstein. “The biggest disagreement is between cuts alone versus cuts coupled with revenue enhancement.”
Greenstein said that both political parties broadly concur that $2 trillion in deficit reduction will be required over the next decade to stop America’s debt from growing faster than its economy. Both sides also agree, he said, that large cuts to Social Security, Medicare, or defense are not acceptable ways to achieve these reductions. Greenstein concluded that, as a result, there are only two major parts of the budget left from which the bulk of the cuts can come: safety net programs for low-income households; and non-security discretionary programs, such as education, employment training, international aid,
And while there will always be disagreements over deficit reduction strategies, Greenstein explained that upcoming fiscal deadlines will force specific confrontations to occur within the next few months. And it may take dramatic action to force any agreement.
“Our parties are so far apart ideologically that a federal government shutdown may be required to get the sides to begin compromising,” Greenstein said. “I think something like the shutdown of 1995—the standoff between Bill Clinton and house Republicans—is a likely scenario.”
The bottom-line, Greenstein concluded, is that “we’re in for an unspeakable year.”
Greenstein’s appearance at Chicago Harris was part of the Presidency 2012 lecture series. The Presidency 2012 event series brings in presidential candidates, campaign strategists, and influential policy practitioners to present their views on the purposes of government in the United States, a debate that has surfaced as one of the central themes of past and upcoming elections.
